Meinian Health (002044): Pay attention to changes in income growth in the second half of the year while improving quality and efficiency

Meinian Health (002044): Pay attention to changes in income growth in the second half of the year while improving quality and efficiency
Event: The company released its 2019 Interim Report, reporting that a series of companies achieved operating income36.41 ppm, a 10-year increase2.93%, achieved net profit attributable to mother 0.17 trillion, down 89 a year.4%, net of non-attributed net profit -1.3.6 billion, down 251 a year.2%; realized operating cash flow-6.30,000 yuan, down 100 every year.5%. Opinion: The company’s performance forecast conforms to the company’s performance forecast.Q2 single quarter revenue23.62 ppm, a 10-year increase2.2%, basically consistent with the first quarter revenue growth rate; net profit attributable to mothers1.3.5 billion, down 49 before.5% (small amount unadjusted); operating cash flow-0.4.8 billion, an improvement over the same period last year. Gross profit margin 43.9%, a decline of 7 per year.3%, due to the increase in investment in medical staff, due to the increase in the number of new stores, the accumulation of comprehensive same-stores decreased compared to last year; sales expense ratio 22.3%, down 4 per year.3%, the company’s sales expenses are well controlled under the situation of significant increase in sales personnel; the management expense ratio is 7.1%, a slight increase of 0 from last year.6%; financial expense ratio 4.4%, rising by 1 every year.4%, the company successfully issued 200 million US dollars of bonds in the first quarter. The opening of the medical examination center maintained a rapid pace, and the first-, second-, and third- and fourth-tier markets developed in a balanced manner, and the unit price of passengers increased steadily. A total of 684 physical examination hospitals (including under construction) were established in 311 cities in the report, including 288 companies holding 305 companies, 305 shares in shares, and 91 companies under construction, a total of more than 50 more than at the end of last year.The physical examination center has 306 first- and second-tier layouts, 287 third- and fourth-tier layouts, and the first-, second-, and third- and fourth-tier markets account for 51.6%: 48.In the first half of the year, the number of physical examinations was 10.38 million (7.47 million in the holding center and 2.89 million in the share-holding center), a slight increase from the same period of last year; the revenue from 苏州桑拿网 individual inspections accounted for 72%: 28%, and the average unit price was 499 yuan./ Person (group inspection 480 yuan / person, individual inspection 609 yuan / person), an increase of about 8% over the same period last year.At the same time, there are 187 medical examination centers with medical insurance qualifications, which greatly facilitates the needs of urban residents for medical examinations. The company’s short-term performance under pressure is expected to be temporary, and its operating conditions will continue to improve in the second half of the year.1) The main reason for the pressure on the performance in the first half of the year is that the company’s same-store physical examination volume has declined. We believe that the company’s increase in identification and participation in medical quality, consumer confidence is gradually recovering, and the growth of medical examination volume in the second half is expected to grow steadily.Speed up; 2) The company has increased its investment in various overhauls. With the continuous introduction of high-margin programs such as MR and low-dose spiral CT, and the gradual penetration of new medical examination packages for good young doctors, the company’s unit price is expected to maintain good growth for a long timeSituation; 3) The company’s fixed increase is expected to be completed in the third quarter, and the company’s financial rate is expected to decrease in the second half of the year. As the industry leader, the company has broad room for growth in the medium and long term: relatively speaking, the domestic annual medical examination rate and the unit price of physical examination customers have significant room for improvement; as the industry leader, the company has a long lead in the number of medical examination centers and its layout in cities with large domestic populations,Some medical check-up centers have short operating lives and great potential for future growth. At the same time, the company, as the largest health traffic portal in the country, has rich derivative services in the future. Earnings forecast and investment advice: For the time being, we will not consider the additional contribution to the company ‘s profit contribution and equity dilution effect. We estimate that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 9 in 2019-2021.3 billion, 11.9 ppm and 15.4 ‰, an increase of 15 in ten years.6%, 32.0%, 33.9%, corresponding EPS is 0.25, 0.32, 0.41 yuan. Maintain the “overweight” rating. Risk reminder events: The profitability of the medical examination center is lower than the expected risk, the risk of medical service quality control, and the risk that the expected return will decline due to the dilution of the equity after the fixed increase.