Shanxi Fenjiu (600809) Quarterly Report Review: Growth in the Third Quarter Accelerates by 140%
Matters: The company released three quarterly reports, and realized operating income of 1-3Q19.
3%, an increase of 25% per year.
7%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies16.
9.6 billion, an annual increase of 33.
Among them, 3Q19 achieved operating income of 25.
50,000 yuan, an annual increase of 35.
5%; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies5.
0.6 billion, an annual increase of 53.
The surplus of advance receipts at the end of the third quarter of 19 was 18.
4 ppm each year, an increase of 10 from the previous month.
500 million, 3.
600 million yuan.
Ping An’s point of view: 3Q19 revenue, net profit growth exceeded market expectations, due to higher-than-expected revenue growth of high-end products Qinghuafen Liquor, and the decline in sales expense ratio exceeded expectations.
The growth of blue and white fen wine accelerated, Bolifen maintained rapid growth, and old Baifen maintained rapid growth.
Benefiting from the low base in 3Q18 and 四川耍耍网 the increase in the ex-factory price of channel analysis feedback, the growth of blue and white fen wine at a wholesale price of 200 yuan / bottle in 3Q19 accelerated, driving the growth rate of 1-3Q19 to about 30%, and a wholesale price of 40-50 yuan per bottle in Bolivia.It maintained a high growth rate of 50-60% in the first half of the year, and the old Baifen series (including Panama) at a wholesale price of 100-200 yuan per bottle maintained a revenue growth rate of 10-20% in the first half.
The preparation of Jiuzhuyeqing was placed under the management of the Bfenfen team for 19 years, and channel research feedbacks that the ex-factory price rose at the end of September, and jointly promoted the 3Q19 revenue surge2.
38 times to about 1.
62 ppm, 1-3Q19 total 3.
6.3 billion, an increase of 82% previously.
Including the Fen brand and Xinghuacun series of wine revenue6.
9.3 billion, estimated to be roughly stable each year.
At the end of the third quarter of 19, the balance of advance receipts was 18.
400 million, previously, the chain increased by 10.
500 million, 3.
600 million, should leave room for 4Q19.
The surge outside the province is about 140%, and the growth rate inside the province continues.
In the third quarter of 19, Fenjiu realized 1.4 billion yuan in revenue in and outside Shanxi Province, 13 respectively.
30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 3.
In the first three quarters of 19, the province and the outside realized revenue of 44.
800 million, 45.
7 ppm, a ten-year increase of 7.
In 2019, Fenjiu increased its expansion outside the province, highlighting blue and white flowers and Bentley on its products, and vigorously developing core terminals on its channels.
Fenjiu has a high market share in Shanxi Province, 7.The 66% growth rate basically reflects the market growth rate.
Looking forward to 2020, outside the province will still be the main source of the growth of Fenjiu, with broad space.
In the third quarter of 19, gross profit margin and sales expense ratio both dropped.
Gross profit margin in the third quarter of 19 was 63.
9%, at least downgraded by 5Pct, or the proportion of low-gross products such as Bofen and blended wine increased.
The sales expense ratio for the third quarter of 19 was 10.
3%, a big drop of 7 a year.
5Pct, or related to quarterly changes in fee recognition.
The management expense ratio in the third quarter of 19 was 7.
32% (including research and development), rising 0 in ten years.
26Pct, basically normal.
Bofen helped accelerate the nationalization and maintain the “recommended” level.
Fenjiu has an absolute leading position in the Shanxi base market, and has a prominent national gene as a fragrance-type leader.
The company’s product portfolio is complete, and the reform of the sales system has been initially completed. The product mix of “sub-high-end blue and white + low-end Bofen” has promoted high-speed expansion in the province, and Bophin is likely to help accelerate the nationalization.
Considering that 2020 may be the year when the second round of the three-year plan is launched, the EPS2 of 19 and 20 years will be maintained.
The forecast of 66 yuan will increase by about 30 in ten years.
6%, 21%, PE is about 38.
5 times, maintaining the “recommended” level.
Risk reminders: 1) Downside risk of liquor industry.
The spirit of the liquor industry is highly correlated with the price trend. If the price of liquor drops, it may lead to a significant increase in corporate revenue.
2) Risk of business fluctuations due to changes.
Liquor companies are greatly affected by business strategies, such as mergers and acquisitions, which may lead to corporate revenue and significant changes in profits.
3) Policy risks.
Liquor industry needs, tax rates, etc. are penetrated by policy influences. If relevant policies change, it may transform corporate revenue and profit may have a conversion impact.