Yanghe (002304) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Channels actively adjust to impact short-term performance. Inventory cleanup benefits in the long run

Yanghe (002304) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Channels actively adjust to impact short-term performance. Inventory cleanup benefits in the long run

I. Overview of the incident The company released the third quarter report of 2019, reporting and realizing 210 operating income.

980,000 yuan, ten years +0.

63%; net profit attributable to mother 71.

46 trillion, +1 a year.

53%; basic EPS is 4.

74 yuan.

Equivalent to Q3 single quarter to achieve operating income of 50.

99 ‰, at least -20.

61%; net profit attributable to mother 15 was achieved.

650,000 yuan, at least -23.

07%.

Second, the analysis and judgment of Q3’s performance is significantly underway. The impact of active destocking and inventory intensification in the first three quarters of the company’s revenue / net profit attributable to the mother was 210.

98/71.

46 trillion, ten years +0.

63% / + 1.

53%.

Total Q3 single quarter revenue / attributable net profit of 50.

99/15.

650,000 yuan, at least -20.

61% /-23.

07%.

The company’s Q3 single-quarter revenue / profits all showed significant deviations, and the initiative to de-channel the inventory distorted the performance slightly more than expected.

It is expected that after Q3 centralized destocking, the Q4 channel inventory situation and the Spring Festival dealer payment situation will improve sequentially.

The company’s gross profit margin was 71 in the first three quarters.

67% a year -1.

36ppt; period expense rate 17.

14%, ten years +1.

54ppt; sales expense ratio 10.

76%, ten years +1.

30ppt; management expense ratio 6.

61% per year.

29ppt; financial expense ratio -0.

23% a year -0.

06ppt.

Q3 single quarter gross margin was 73.

94% -2 per year.

57ppt; period expense rate is 25.

88%, ten 杭州桑拿 years +6.57ppt; selling expense ratio 17.

65%, ten years +5.

05ppt; management expense ratio 8.

43%, ten years +1.

51ppt; financial expense ratio -0.

19%, ten years +0.

01ppt.

The decline in gross profit margin may be related to the increase in sales discounts; revenue increased and channel expansion expanded, and the increase in sales expense ratio increased significantly.

Intensified market competition in the province, actively controlled the goods and effectively cleared the channel inventory. In 2019, famous wines such as Guojiao and Wuliangye increased the market share of Jiangsu. Today, local wine companies such as Shiyuan strengthened the group purchase channel construction.The channel inventory pressure is lower than the market size outside the province.

Since May, the company has taken active measures to control stocks and raise prices to clear channel inventory and strengthen channel thrust. It is expected that the company’s channel inventory will be basically adjusted after the first quarter of next year. With the organizational structure and personnel adjustments, the company’s channels will be rejuvenated.The market will be the focus of the company’s channel efforts.

Controlling shareholders reach share repurchase to demonstrate long-term development confidence On October 29, the company’s controlling shareholder Jiangsu Yanghe Group proposed a share repurchase.

The major shareholders suggested that it should not exceed RMB 135.

The price of 00 yuan / share refuses to invest 10?
$ 1.5 billion repurchase of company shares for the purpose of implementing equity incentives or employee stock ownership plans for core key employees.

At present, the company is in the transitional period of marketing adjustment. It actively controls the impact of the inventory clearance strategy on short-term performance changes. The large shareholder’s initiation of repurchases demonstrates its confidence in the company’s long-term development.

Third, profit forecast and investment recommendations Based on the first three quarter results, we lower the company’s profit forecast.

It is expected that the company will achieve operating income of 246 in 19-21.

43/276.

00/306.

US $ 3.6 billion, previously + 2% / + 12% / + 11%; the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company in 19-21 is expected to be 83.

54/95.

82/107.

48 ppm, the previous + 3% / + 15% / + 12%, according to the latest equity of the corresponding EPS is 5.

54/6.

36/7.

13 yuan, the current corresponding PE is 19/17/15 times.

The company’s overall expected level is lower than the average estimate of the liquor industry. It is expected that the long-term growth rate will improve after the short-term active adjustment, and maintain the “recommended” rating.

Fourth, risks indicate that product sales are less than expected, gross margins have increased significantly, and food safety issues.