Tongwei (600438) quarterly report comments: single-quarter performance is growing and production capacity is promoted and then released

Tongwei (600438) quarterly report comments: single-quarter performance is growing and production capacity is promoted and then released
The 淡水桑拿网 performance of the third quarterly report has increased by 35% per year, and the growth rate is in line with expectations. The company released the third quarterly report for 2019, and achieved revenue of 280 in Q1-Q3 2019.25 ‰, an increase of 31% in ten years, and net profit attributable to mothers22.4.3 billion, previously + 35%, net of non-attributed net profit 20.8.6 billion yuan a year + 33%.Among them, the third quarter revenue was $ 11.9 billion, + 33% for the full year, and net profit attributable to mothers7.92 megabits, previously + 7%.In the case of low battery and silicon material prices, single-quarter results maintained positive growth, and the growth rate was in line with expectations. High-purity crystalline silicon has steadily expanded its leading position, and the growth in production capacity continues to release the company’s semi-annual report, which shows that the sales of silicon materials in the first half of the year 2.28 per year, at least +162.85%, the production cost of the new production line has reached less than 4 million tons / ton, and the production cost of the old production capacity is expected to continue to decrease by 10% compared with 2018.At present, the price of silicon materials has fallen below the cost line of most manufacturers, and the subsequent prices will gradually stabilize.Since October, the conversion of Baotou and Leshan’s new plant has reached full production, and the company’s silicon material capacity will be fully released. We expect to reach the expected growth6.5 nominal.At the same time, the proportion of single crystal materials continues to increase, which will further help the company’s performance growth. Steady progress in cell expansion and introduction of heterojunctions to ensure leading advantagesAt that time, the company’s cell capacity is expected to exceed 20GW, and its scale advantage will be further prominent.On June 20, the company’s first phase of the heterojunction cell was successfully offline, with a conversion efficiency of 23%. The second phase project is expected to be completed by the end of 2019.As the company ‘s battery capacity continues to expand and the mass production technology for heterojunction batteries is introduced first, the company ‘s competition will be further enhanced to ensure its leading edge. The 2019-2021 results are expected to be 0.77 yuan / share 0.98 yuan / share, 1.Driven by 24 yuan / share of photovoltaic and agricultural and animal husbandry businesses, the company’s net profit attributable to its mother in 19-21 is expected to be 29.8/38.23/48.25 trillion, EPS is 0.77/0.98/1.24 yuan / share. The closing price on October 24 corresponds to PE of 15.96X / 12.44X / 9.86X.The company has obvious cost advantages in the field of photovoltaics. The expansion of production capacity has consolidated the scale of the leader, and the leading edge is expected to expand. It gives the company 16 times PE valuation in 2020, which is equivalent to a reasonable value of 15.75 yuan / share, continue to give a Buy rating. Risks suggest that photovoltaic installations are less than expected, and the price of the industrial chain has fallen sharply; risks of changes in internal policy environments and risks of changes in international trade conditions; and battery technology updates have made the company risk of backward production capacity.